Rates are at a 15-year high — but the RBA has hinted it may be near the top
On 29 September the Reserve Bank lifted the official cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.60%. It was the fourth increase this year and the highest the cash rate has been in 15 years. The board’s decision was unanimous, and the written statement pointed to inflation risks that have begun to materialise — chiefly a renewed escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and a sharp rise in global oil prices.
Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference, though, struck a more measured tone than the decision itself. She said the board hopes four rate rises will prove restrictive enough to bring inflation back to target, while acknowledging she could not be sure, and indicated a further increase may not be needed if inflation keeps easing. The bank also dropped its earlier reference to inflation returning to the middle of the target band in late 2027. The next day’s figures landed broadly as expected, with underlying inflation holding at 3.6%.
The practical message for anyone buying or selling is a balanced one: borrowing costs are now at their highest in 15 years, the RBA has signalled it may be close to the peak, but it has not ruled out doing more. From here the path depends on the data — so it is wiser to plan for the possibility of another rise than to assume cuts are around the corner.
Brisbane is now leading the national slowdown
The figures released on 1 October confirm the market has turned. Cotality’s national Home Value Index fell 1.1% in September — a sixth consecutive monthly decline that leaves national values 5.2% below their March 2026 peak. Annual growth across the country has now flattened to zero.
Brisbane was the hardest-hit capital of all. Values here fell 1.5% over the month, the sharpest drop of any capital city, edging out Sydney’s 1.4% fall. Darwin was the only capital to avoid a decline. Right across the capitals, 97% of suburbs recorded a fall over the past three months, so this is a broad-based shift rather than a few soft pockets.
Just as telling is how much activity has cooled. Brisbane recorded the steepest drop in sales volumes of any capital, down 27.2% on a year ago, even as spring has pushed a wave of new listings onto the market — stock is now running well above year-ago levels. More homes for sale and fewer buyers competing for them is the textbook definition of a buyer’s market, and that changes the calculations on both sides of a transaction.
If you’re buying –
This is the most favourable market for buyers in years — but only for those who come prepared. Two things matter most right now.
First, check your borrowing capacity against today’s rate, not last month’s. A pre-approval obtained before the September rise may no longer reflect what a lender will advance at 4.60%, and with the RBA leaving the door open to a further increase, it is worth stress-testing your repayments against a rate higher again. The last thing you want is to go unconditional on finance you can no longer secure.
Second, use your leverage — carefully. With more stock on the market and homes selling more slowly, there is genuine room to negotiate on price, conditions and settlement timing. But a longer or more complex contract is also where things go wrong. We make sure your finance clause gives you a real exit if your lending or the valuation shifts between signing and settlement, rather than leaving you exposed. Talk to us before you make an offer, not after you have signed one.
If you’re selling –
You are competing with more listings and more cautious buyers than at any time in recent years, and buyers in a softening market look harder for reasons to walk away. That makes a clean, correctly prepared contract your single most important asset.
In Queensland, the seller disclosure regime that began in August 2025 requires you to give the buyer a completed disclosure statement and the prescribed certificates before the contract is signed. If that disclosure is incomplete or wrong, the buyer may have a right to terminate — and they can exercise it after signing, right up to settlement. When prices were rising, that risk stayed largely theoretical. In today’s market, where a buyer’s finance or the valuation can move against them between contract and settlement, an error in your disclosure becomes a ready-made exit.
We prepare these documents carefully for exactly that reason. Getting the disclosure right at the outset is what keeps a sale together when conditions are soft — and it is far cheaper than discovering a problem on the day settlement was meant to happen.
Two things worth knowing before you sign –
You’ll be asked for more information than you may be used to. Since 1 July 2026, conveyancers and lawyers have been covered by Australia’s anti-money-laundering laws when we act on a property transaction. In practice that means we now verify your identity and, in some cases, confirm your source of funds before we proceed. If our onboarding feels more thorough than your last purchase or sale, this is why — it is a legal obligation that applies to every firm in our profession, and it protects you as much as us. Having your ID ready at the start keeps everything moving.
If you’re buying with a partner or family member, check your residency position early. From 1 August 2026, each buyer claiming a Queensland home transfer-duty concession must be an Australian citizen, permanent resident or specified foreign retiree at the time the duty liability arises. For couples or family members with different residency status, this can change what you pay — so it is worth raising with us before you sign, not after. Across all of these issues, pre-contract advice is where smooth settlements begin.
How we can help ..
A shifting market rewards preparation. Whether you are buying into a market that has handed you more negotiating room, or selling into one where a clean contract makes all the difference, the best time to involve us is before you make or accept an offer — not once the contract is already signed and the clock is running.
If you are thinking about a move in the months ahead, get in touch with Conveyancing Home QLD. We will talk you through what today’s conditions mean for your specific purchase or sale, and make sure that when you do sign, you understand exactly what you are committing to.
Contact Conveyancing Home QLD today for a consultation. 073236 2852 e- info@conveyancinghome.com.au | 320 Adelaide Street, BRISBANE #PropertyLaw #QueenslandConveyancing #JapaneseLawyers #ChineseLawyers #SpanishSpeaking #SouthAfricanLawyer #KoreanLawyers
This article is general information only and is current as at 1 October 2026. It is not legal or financial advice, and property, tax and lending rules can change quickly. Your circumstances should be assessed individually — please contact us for advice specific to your transaction. Market data: Cotality Home Value Index (September 2026). Rate and inflation data: Reserve Bank of Australia.